Volatility Is Back — Here’s How LFG Is Positioning To Win, LFG Daily - November 14, 2025

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Luke Lloyd, CEO Lloyd Financial Group

I wanted to dedicate today’s newsletter to the investment side of the house. With the recent uptick in market volatility, it’s important you know exactly how we at Lloyd Financial Group are thinking about portfolio design, risk, and opportunity right now.

Volatility isn’t something we fear—it’s something we plan for. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and times like these are when disciplined strategy matters most. Our team has been leaning deeper into the data, reviewing positioning across asset classes, and making sure every portfolio we manage reflects the environment we’re actually in—not the one we wish we were in.

We’re focused on three things: protecting the downside, staying flexible, and being ready to take advantage of mispriced opportunities as they emerge. This is where long-term wealth is built, not when everything is calm.

So today’s newsletter zooms in on the investment landscape: what’s driving this volatility and how we’re navigating it on behalf of our clients. As always, our goal is to give you clarity, confidence, and a strategy that works in the real world.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group

I wanted to write a short, quick note given all the carnage out there, today. It’s worth noting that for all that today felt bad, SPX was only down 1.7%, taking us to 2.6% off all-time highs. That said, plenty of recent winners and momentum stocks have been hit hard. What happened?

I don’t feel like I have all the answers, and I’ll talk about what happened more over the weekend. However, one simple but accurate thought is that the trouble seemed to really start when Powell said a December rate cut wasn’t a given, which happened in the arrow on the chart below. That market the YTD high for the market.

Today, we had multiple Fed heads talk down the idea of a December rate cut, moving the odds from near certainty in late October to 50%, now. Further exacerbating the market mess is that inflation expectations have been moving down. If Fed hawkishness is raising rates while inflation expectations are moving down, that means real rates have to be moving up, which is generally hard on longer-duration assets. Thus, gold, crypto, and growth stocks go down. That said, the more dramatic move in real rates was in late October, so I don’t want to oversell the idea that today was all about real rates.

Is the top in? Who knows? What I would say, personally, is that I have a hard time seeing a real problem. The dollar went down, and credit spreads have modestly improved, signs that there’s no new liquidity stress. Indeed, considering the timing of the government reopening, it’s entirely possible we’ve hardly seen any liquidity from the Treasury yet, and it’s certain more is coming. Similarly, I don’t see inflation or growth stress, either.

To be clear, maybe that will change. Right now, though, what I mainly see is people out of position and panicking. For instance, it seems the option market was totally unprepared for today’s chaos. It’s possible that downside continues but often we see a bounce after a strong liquidation event like we saw today.

For our funds, we’ll watch our risk control, which consists of watching growth, inflation, and liquidity, along with expected support levels. So far, it may surprise you to learn nothing has broken, but then again, we’re holding longer-term positions. We’ve also tried to stay reasonably diversified, so while we had some losers, we also had some winners. In the days ahead, I expect we’ll bounce, like we’re seeing in markets so far, tonight. If we do keep falling, risk management will make us deleverage. We’ll watch closely and see what happens.

No doubt, these unexpected flushes are deeply unpleasant. Chances are, particularly if you’ve outperformed this year, today hurt, at least in individual positions, as a lot of the year’s winners were hit. I’ve been a portfolio manager since the start of 2000, and I can’t think of any make-or-break day. Good days happen and bad days happen. As I’ve been saying, have a good process and good things should come over time. We’ll see what tomorrow and the next week brings.

In general, I’d like to see support stick in various assets. I’d like to see volatility relax. I’d like to see real rates top. I’d like to see rate cut odds come back. Any mix of those factors should help the market and are worth watching.

Haver Analytcs says jobless claims dipped from 229K to 228K.

The Fed’s Daly said he thinks the job market has definitely weakened but can’t definitely say if they should cut in December.

The Fed’s Hammack said they need to stay restrictive to fight inflation.

The Fed’s Musalem said while business investment is weak, they need to lean against inflation.

The Fed’s Kashkari also helped ding December rate cut odds to 50% by saying inflation is still too high.

ZeroHedge commented that it may take a day or two to see the Treasury cash disbursement due to the late hour the government reopened. Regardless, some released cash takes a day or two under normal circumstances. Earlier in the week, I said the reopening may be messier than usual, and arguably we’re seeing that.

Chinese activity slowed from a month ago, with Industrial Production 4.9% Y/Y vs. exp. 5/5% and Retail Sales 2.9% vs. exp. 2.8%.

The UK is talking about dropping plans to raise interest rates, due to strong data and weak inflation. That sent UK bond (gilt) yields climbing as people wonder how funds will get raised.

CNN Fear& Greed went back to extreme fear.

AMZN and MSFT support legislation to limit NVDA’s ability to export to China.

Applied Materials (AMAT) expects a boost in semiconductor equipment demand in the back half of next year, but current demand is weak, sending shares -5%.

Among all the losses, the dollar was also down on the day. That’s interesting, as usually big selling leads to a strong dollar, as people rush to cash.

More Fed speakers, today. See what damage they can do, I guess.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

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