The Estate Tax Exclusion, LFG Daily - August 3rd, 2026

If you’ve been saving and investing for years, one question eventually comes up: “Am I actually on the right track?”

Many investors have multiple accounts—401(k)s, IRAs, brokerage accounts—but rarely step back to see how everything fits together. That’s why we offer a Free Portfolio Analysis and 1,000-Foot View Financial Plan.

This complimentary review looks at the big picture of your financial life, including:

• Your overall investment allocation• Hidden risks or portfolio overlap• Fees that may be reducing returns• How your investments align with your long-term goals

Think of it as a financial second opinion—a chance to step back and make sure your strategy is built for the future.

If you’d like clarity and confidence about where you stand, schedule your free portfolio analysis today.

Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Dream Bigger, Sleep Better

Luke Lloyd, CEO Lloyd Financial Group

The Estate Tax Exclusion Isn’t Fixed—It Changes More Than Most People Realize

When people hear about the federal estate tax, they often assume there is one permanent exemption amount that never changes. In reality, the estate tax exclusion is a moving target. It has changed dramatically over the past two decades due to inflation adjustments, changing administrations, and new tax legislation.

Understanding how and why it changes is one of the most important aspects of estate planning.

The Estate Tax Exclusion Has Evolved Significantly

The federal estate tax exclusion is the amount you can pass to your heirs before federal estate taxes apply. Assets above the exclusion are generally subject to a 40% federal estate tax.

Here’s how dramatically the exclusion has changed:

• 2017: $5.49 million

• 2018: $11.18 million (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act)

• 2020: $11.58 million

• 2022: $12.06 million

• 2024: $13.61 million

• 2025: $13.99 million

• 2026: $15.0 million per individual, or $30.0 million for many married couples using portability.

The increases after 2018 came from a combination of major tax legislation and annual inflation adjustments. Most families will never owe federal estate tax because of these historically high exemption amounts.

Why This Matters

Many people delay estate planning because they believe they are well below today’s exemption amount.

That can be a dangerous assumption.

Your estate isn’t just your investment account. It includes:

• Your home

• Vacation properties

• Retirement accounts

• Brokerage accounts

• Business interests

• Life insurance (in certain circumstances)

• Personal property

• Future appreciation of all those assets

Someone worth $8 million today who experiences decades of investment growth could easily have an estate worth $20 million or more later in life.

Estate planning is about preparing for where your wealth is going—not just where it is today.

Tax Laws Change With Politics

One lesson history teaches is that estate tax laws are rarely permanent.

Congress has repeatedly increased and decreased exemption amounts depending on political priorities. A change in administration or Congress can dramatically alter the rules.

That means your estate plan shouldn’t be something you complete once and place in a drawer.

It should be reviewed regularly as tax laws evolve.

Inflation Helps—But Only So Much

Each year, the exclusion is generally adjusted for inflation when permitted under current law.

While inflation adjustments gradually increase the exemption, legislative changes can have a much larger impact.

That’s why staying informed matters. A single act of Congress can change estate planning opportunities far more than years of inflation adjustments.

Don’t Forget State Estate Taxes

Even if your estate won’t owe federal estate tax, you may still face state estate or inheritance taxes depending on where you live or own property.

Several states have exemption amounts far lower than the federal level, making proactive planning even more valuable. Fortunately, Kentucky does not impose a state estate tax, although inheritance tax rules may apply depending on who inherits your assets.

Estate Planning Is More Than Avoiding Taxes

Too many people think estate planning is only for ultra-high-net-worth families trying to avoid taxes.

That’s only one piece of the puzzle.

A comprehensive estate plan also helps:

• Protect minor children

• Avoid unnecessary probate delays

• Ensure assets are distributed according to your wishes

• Coordinate beneficiary designations

• Protect surviving spouses

• Prepare for incapacity through powers of attorney and healthcare directives

• Create a smoother transition for future generations

The federal estate tax exclusion has changed repeatedly throughout history, and it will almost certainly continue to evolve.

The families who benefit the most aren’t the ones who predict future tax laws perfectly—they’re the ones who build flexible estate plans that can adapt as the rules change.

Whether your estate is worth $2 million or $50 million, reviewing your estate plan every few years—and after major tax legislation—is one of the smartest financial planning decisions you can make.

Good estate planning isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about being prepared for it.

Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group

The AI trade took quite the hit in July but also saw a strong rebound towards the end, seemingly on news the hedge fund Situational Awareness dumped their large publicly traded basket of AI stocks onto Citadel Securities. So, is the AI trade alive or dead?

We should recognize there’s been quite a lot going on outside of AI. The basic issues of the Iran war and rate stress, in part from the Fed, aren’t going away. That’s driven rates up to highs, which naturally raisies pressure on stocks. We’re also seeing excitement in FX (foreign exchange) markets, with yen intervention spiking it up to levels not seen since late April. Volatility in rates and FX aren’t constructive backdrops for leverage.

The market fell on all this, which makes sense, but mostly we saw a heavy rotation out of high beta and AI and into more defensive names like healthcare and staples. The news that Situational Awareness deleveraged seemed to serve as a clearing event to the AI trade, with a strong bounce since then. Are we out of the woods?

I think AP Research put it well when they said the Situational Awareness event was “A Clearing Event, Not an All-Clear.” I don’t see much to worry about from AI itself, but rate stress needs to go away if we really want to see aggressive AI-buying kick back up. Long rates in particular seem nervous that the Fed is allowing for overly loose policy.

I have to admit that I really struggle see why the market thinks that even higher real rates are merited. Commentators, including some Fed heads, talk about persistent inflation pressure, but inflation expectations have been headed down even with renewed war headlines. Deficit worries certainly aren’t anything new. Claims that Warsh is hawkish seems like an open question. The idea that AI-productivity merits higher rates seem reasonable, but then shouldn’t rates go down when the AI trade becomes troubled?

I just tend to think there’s been a lot of recent fear in the markets of late and that raised term-premium. If we continue to see the AI stocks post strong numbers, I’d expect that fear to relax. That said, in the AI area stress has been very high and that can recover slowly as some capital got impaired. Situational Awareness wasn’t the only entity to have an existential moment over the last month. Just think about your average Korean speculator.

Ultimately, we saw heavy stress in rates due to a variety of factors, and particularly in the rearview mirror it’s easy to see how that created the conditions for something to break. In this case, leveraged AI-speculators appeared to bear the brunt of the damage. That crash led to the clearing event of Situational Awareness deleveraging. While that appears to have set a bottom in the area, we’d like to see rates fail to move up higher to see confidence return.

Again, the broad market has done very little in this, as it’s largely been a rotation amidst an unwind. The S&P 500 is currently less than 2% off of all-time highs. I view that as impressive given all the currency and bond market stress we’ve seen in the last month. The market attacked a stressed area, but as a whole everything still looks constructive.

From a longer-term perspective, I continue to remain bullish. That said, I think it’s worth noting that plenty of investors faced big losses which caused a pullback in risk-taking. There’s no real guarantee they come back quickly, or at all, really. A kinder environment from the current high long-rate world would certainly help. We saw a crowded trade unwind, but the factors that caused it still seem to be in place.

AstraZeneca (AZN) and Bristol Meyers (BMY) have held merger talks, according to the FT. AZN is down 6% and BMY up 7% on the news.

Oil was down -6% on news a deal with Iran is being worked on. Yields and the dollar are also down.

BoJ and the US intervened in currency markets again on Friday to prop up the yen.

Bitcoin slipped a bit after Coldcard wallets had at least $70MM in bitcoin stolen in a hack.

Chinese memory company CXMT is considering building a second memory chip plant, which is helping put modest pressure on other memory companies and semis in general.

Korea’s Kospi index was -5% overnight in part due to the above news.

Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending today.

Bottom line: Some nervousness in semis and energy stocks.

Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Disclosures/Regulation:

This content is intended to provide general information about Lloyd Financial. It is not intended to offer or deliver investment advice in any way. Information regarding investment services are provided solely to gain an understanding of our investment philosophy, our strategies and to be able to contact us for further information.

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable