Semiconductors - Stay or Go? LFG Daily, July 14th, 2026

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Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group

The semiconductor space is staying exciting, with plenty of crosscurrents. After having gone nowhere for the last two months, with some constituents well off highs, are semiconductors a dip worth buying or are they too dangerous?

That’s definitely not an easy question. It’s probably fair to say the market hasn’t been rewarding good news like it used to, in a sign the good news may be priced in. For that matter, as the numbers get larger, it’s harder to keep growth up. Semiconductors spent the last decade going from 2% of the market to 20%. I don’t think we’re going to 200%, for obvious reasons.

At the same time, some of these names are down 25% or more from their peak. Is it too late to sell? Admittedly, this anguish is easier if you already trimmed some on the way up, as we did. That’s not useful advice now, though.To take a step back, what’s really going on? Semi earnings are still printing strong numbers, though admittedly growth expectations have gotten pretty high, as we saw with Broadcom (AVGO) earnings, for instance. Additionally, an upward move in rates and the dollar have helped rotate capital from high growth to value, as farther-out earnings growth gets devalued.

Positioning also got very stretched, particularly in Korea. That says less about how the companies are doing and more about aggressive investors. Last night saw Korea’s Kospi index find support at a big level. Could we have finally blown out speculators and start forming a base?

AI seems like a trend that will stick around for quite a while, and there’s little sign business is going durably south anytime soon. For instance, Taiwan Semi (TSM) reported strong numbers this morning, with 36% growth, a slight beat, as AI demand pushes orders. At the same time, they have a forward P/E of 21 and an ROE of 39%. Those aren’t offensive numbers.

Ultimately, there is no right answer, as we don’t know the future. For our part, I’m glad we took some off in the last big move up, as it helps take the pressure off. My basic attitude is to see what happens with semi earnings, this week. TSM looked OK, and we have ASML reporting Wednesday morning and TSM reports full quarterly numbers on Thursday morning.

I don’t think you can currently question that the semiconductor space remains strong fundamentally, I do think you can question what investors are willing to pay for that strength. My general idea from here is that you want to like and be comfortable with what you own. If you feel uncomfortable, you probably want to sell some on the next bounce. In general, semis have dropped from highs but are also holding at support. We should know more as we hit more earnings reports.

NFIB Small Business Optimism was 97.4 vs. est. 95.7.

Iran escalation pumped oil up 9%, though the equal-weight S&P was basically flat, with selling focused on semiconductors. Trump said the US would assume control of the Strait in exchange for a 20% charge.

Ugly day yesterday, if heavily driven by semiconductors (SMH.) Equal-weight S&P was basically flat on the day and everything happened on light volume.

The Korean Financial Supervisory Service reports of 1.2MM leveraged accounts, roughly 340K have been fully forcibly liquidated. That’s an estimated 3.4% of Korea’s adult population financially wiped. Now that’s a washout.

Korea’s Kospi index was volatile last night but ended up 0.73%, featuring SK Hynix (SKHY) moving from -9% to +3%. That helped send the US semi index (SMH) up 2%.

CPI and the start of earnings season today. Headline CPI is expected to be negative m/m, though Core is expected to hold steady at 0.2%. ADP Employment is also this morning.

There are also lots of Fed Governors talking today, including Warsh talking to Congress.

Bottom line: CPI and Warsh in Washington have the potential to move rates.

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