Second-Half 2026 Playbook, LFG Daily - June 29th, 2026
If you’ve been saving and investing for years, one question eventually comes up: “Am I actually on the right track?”
Many investors have multiple accounts—401(k)s, IRAs, brokerage accounts—but rarely step back to see how everything fits together. That’s why we offer a Free Portfolio Analysis and 1,000-Foot View Financial Plan.
This complimentary review looks at the big picture of your financial life, including:
• Your overall investment allocation• Hidden risks or portfolio overlap• Fees that may be reducing returns• How your investments align with your long-term goals
Think of it as a financial second opinion—a chance to step back and make sure your strategy is built for the future.
If you’d like clarity and confidence about where you stand, schedule your free portfolio analysis today.
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Dream Bigger, Sleep Better
Luke Lloyd, CEO Lloyd Financial Group
Your Second-Half Playbook — July 8–9, Live Online
The easy trades of the last two years have gotten a lot more complicated. Rotation is real, macro risks are stacking up, and the second half of 2026 is shaping up to demand a sharper, more active approach than most investors are running right now.
I’ll be joining MoneyShow’s July Virtual Conference on July 8–9 to break down exactly that — second-half positioning, where the opportunities have quietly opened up, and how to build a portfolio that can handle what’s coming. Live sessions, real-time Q&A, actionable ideas. No travel required.
Two days. A clear game plan. I hope to see you there.
Luke LloydFounder & CEOLloyd Financial Group
Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.
Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group
I’ve been a professional portfolio manager since the beginning of 2000. For my part, the idea that the way to successfully invest in 1974, 2000, and now is the exact same method strikes me as a version of quaint and dangerous. In theory, can you just buy value, hold for decades, and make money? Sure, but you’ll have long periods of massive underperformance. Who could stand losing the relative race so badly from 2009 to 2025?
There have been many changes over the decades but the one I want to focus on right now is the heavy financialization of the market. What I mean by that is there’s so much money in markets now and so much growth in that money, that it’s become a big driver of the market, drowning out the impact of more traditional factors. At this point we have massive derivative and options markets that push markets around and away from fundamental factors.
Because of that, there are many stock moves that seem basically random. There’s always a cause, though. The problem is that now, so many of the moves are caused by non-fundamental factors. Rates move up and down, liquidity rises and falls, currencies shift, and all that causes stocks to move regardless of what happens to the individual assets.
One relatively basic example of this is gold. You can view gold as a form of savings account, as it tends to hold its value versus currencies over time. Thus, it grows, but not in a straight line. You can’t just track growth in money supply and get it right, though. Gold would never go down! What causes those surges and dips? There is no one factor, but one reasonable focus can be on real rates.
What are real rates? Take a Treasury bond and subtract inflation expectations, which can be derived from Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS.) Yields minus inflation equals real rates. That’s basically what an investor is really getting from a bond once inflation has had their way with them. In turn, that can be used as a comparison for a lot of future expectations.
Lately, real rates have been soaring, as inflation fear has been high due to the Iran war spiking oil, then we got a new Fed Chairman who did the traditional genuflection to shrine of price stability. The relaxation of the Iran issue sharply lowered inflation expectations but Fed fear kept rates high. Thus, rates stayed high, inflation expectations sunk, and real rates soared. Why did gold get crushed lately? Real rates (pictured below) are a big reason.
Those high real rates also crush low-quality growth stocks, which is one reason parts of the market have been unhappy while more traditional areas have been running with the ball, like healthcare and value. If nothing else, understanding these intricacies allows for a more comfortable journey, as at least you know what’s going on and maybe position for it.
Speaking of which, what is going on, now? It’s early, but one can at least argue that real rates have peaked. That makes a lot of sense to me. Oil is way down, so those inflation pressures are likely to fade, over time. Real rates are up because of fear over rate hikes but the reason to hike is fading. Is there a point in hiking further over inflation when it’s not getting worse? History says no.
If real rates are going down, that will change what works in the market. All the stocks that were feeling pressure in June from prospects of ever-increasing real rates can now relax, like what we’ve seen in gold over the last two days. Tomorrow, I want to talk about these sorts of things in terms of a stock we owned that completed the cycle. Heavy market financialization has made finance very important for understanding what’s going on in the market.
The trade balance was -$106B vs. est. -$85B. Lower exports and higher imports are undoing some of the recent Q1 GDP strength we saw.
Wholesale inventories were up 0.3% m/m vs. exp. 0.2%. Easy to imagine that’s stockpiling from the Iran war.
Iran and the US spent the weekend trading blows, then on Sunday agreed to resume talks, conveniently in time for the US futures open. Oil is up 2% and rates are also up a bit, so not everyone seems comfortable with the ‘only weekend fighting’ idea.
BofA reports since Warsh started on May 22nd, Treasuries are up 3.2% and stocks are -1.6%. Guess he convinced people he’s not just a Trump puppet who will immediately slam rates lower.
AAPL is lobbying the US to allow them to buy memory chips from China to alleviate cost pressures.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing, today.
Bottom line: The on-again, off-again war is causing a little volatility, but tech seems back on the front foot
Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.
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