Is Your Financial Advisor Using Cookie Cutter American History As A Guide? LFG Daily - October 30, 2025

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History Rhymes — But Which History Are You Listening To?

Most financial advisors in the U.S. build their forecasts, models, and expectations for the future based on one thing — American history. They look at past recessions, bull markets, inflation cycles, and Fed policy decisions to make assumptions about what’s next. But here’s the problem: America’s story is only 250 years old. That’s barely a chapter in the book of world history.

When you only study one empire, you risk missing the patterns that have repeated for thousands of years — and those patterns may be unfolding again right now.

The U.S. Is Not Immune to the Cycle of Empires

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has famously mapped the “Big Cycle of Empires.” He found that every major empire — from the Dutch, to the British, to the Americans — follows a remarkably similar path:

1. Strong leadership and innovation

2. Economic expansion fueled by productivity and trade

3. Excess debt, rising inequality, and declining education

4. Printing money and currency debasement

5. Internal conflict and loss of global influence

   
   

Sound familiar?

The United States is arguably in the late stages of this cycle. Debt is exploding, political division is widening, the dollar’s dominance is being challenged, and social trust is fading. None of this is “unprecedented.” It’s simply our turn in the historical rotation.

Why Advisors Get It Wrong

Most financial advisors are trained to think in terms of the post-WWII American era — a period defined by economic dominance, reserve currency status, and stable institutions. But this was a unique time in history, not a permanent condition.

When advisors say things like:

• “The market always goes up over time.”

• “The dollar will always be the world’s reserve currency.”

• “The U.S. always recovers stronger than before.”

  
  

They’re speaking as if history began in 1945.

But investors who study the Roman Empire, the British Empire, or even the Dutch Golden Age know that empires always believe their prosperity is permanent — right up until the moment it isn’t.

What This Means for Investors and Retirees

This isn’t about doom and gloom; it’s about realism.

Understanding long-term historical cycles allows you to see the bigger picture and prepare your portfolio for potential transitions that most advisors won’t acknowledge until it’s too late.

• Currency debasement: Every empire prints money to solve its debt problem. Hard assets like gold, commodities, and productive land often outperform in these periods.

• Wealth concentration: The later stages of an empire usually see widening inequality — leading to social and political tension that impacts markets.

• Global power shifts: Emerging nations (like China, India, or others) may capture a greater share of global GDP, changing the flow of capital and opportunity.

• Inflation volatility: Late-cycle empires often see sustained inflation — not runaway hyperinflation, but a chronic erosion of purchasing power over decades.

  
  

In short, the American experience isn’t the rule — it’s an exception.

Thinking Like a Global Historian, Not Just a Financial Planner

A good financial advisor looks at data. A great one looks at context.

At Lloyd Financial Group, we don’t just study the Dow since 1929 — we study economic patterns spanning centuries. We ask the hard questions most advisors won’t:

• What if the dollar loses dominance?

• What happens if inflation becomes structural?

• What if American debt levels start to erode global confidence?

  
  

By looking beyond the narrow lens of American history, we help clients build resilient portfolios designed to thrive in a changing world — not just the one we’ve always known.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group

The Fed cut 25bps, with two dissents (one of which was because they wanted a 50bps cut instead,) and said they would stop QE on Dec. 1st. Why did the market dump? Powell said the December meeting wasn’t a guaranteed cut. This Powell petulance caused Dec. rate cut odds to go from 100% to 70%. I know, I almost died. The dollar also went up 0.6%.

Trump said the meeting with Xi went great. China said refine and follow-up. As expected, it mostly looks like an unwind of recent actions. Seems like if you were hoping for big fanfare out of this meeting, that’s not happening.

South Korea appears to have come to a trade deal with the US.

META sharply missed estimates due to a one-time charge and was down -7% as investors didn’t seem to like the continued heavy investment spend and disappointing guidance for their headset and glasses division.

GOOG beat estimates, with cloud computing the star, with shares up 7%.

MSFT beat estimates but had a steep climb in spending, sending shares -3%.

What does it all mean? VIX volatility is -4% after all this news, showing the market sees no big problems in this news. We’ll see if AAPL or AMZN earnings tonight can cause any shivers.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

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