Did You Make Strategic Moves On The November Dip? LFG Daily - December 8, 2025

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PCE inflation was 0.3% m/m for September, while Core was 0.2%. That’s the same as the previous month, though the Core PCE was down 0.1% vs. a month ago on a Y/Y basis. No cause for worry, there, and rate cut odds are at 87% for Wednesday

Japan’s Q3 GDP was -2.3% vs. est. -2%. Do they still want to raise rates? Cash earnings were up 2.6% vs. exp. 2.2% to make that case but currently the yen is a bit weaker, so it seems rate hike expectations have likely gone down, a bit.

The euro gained, while European stocks dipped a bit, after the ECB’s Schnabel is comfortable with the next move being a hike, and that she’d be happy to take over as President when Lagarde’s term ends in less than two years.

CRH, Carvana (CVNA,) and Comfort Systems (FIX) are getting added to the S&P 500 (SPX.)

NY Fed Consumer Expectations survey this morning shouldn’t be a big deal.

What does it all mean? Modestly encouraging data but realistically we’re probably in thrall to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, at this point.

I have an opinion on the market that you should probably know by now, assuming you’re not new. I think we saw a fair amount of stress in November, primarily in the form of liquidity, those stressors are gone, and now investors are in the process of getting more comfortable, again.

However, not everyone believes that recent problems are gone. There seem to be plenty of people who are waiting for and expecting the next shoe to drop. For instance, the Put/Call ratio is remaining stubbornly high, indicating protection is still being bought, as can be seen in the chart, below.

With that caution, while the market is trending up, it’s been a fairly slow, stubborn rise. What’s interesting about the market move (and as LFG predicted,) the stocks that were liquidity starved are outperforming. For instance, ARK Innovation (ARKK) nearly tripled the SPX return, last week. Under the hood, the market has better breadth.

That said, this seems to be a hated rally, with numerous people calling for an imminent reversal. Maybe that happens. For instance, the world fixed income space seems a bit uncomfortable about spending plans, whether that be in Japan, the US, or Germany. Could those worries dominate coming stimulus and seasonal factors?

On the flip side, we’re about to have a Fed rate cut, which should help support the economy, including a lot of the smaller companies out there. We survived a bout of nervousness from a long government shutdown and Quantitative Tightening that went on too long. From there, we’ve started to see that credit spreads are tightening, again, and markets are relaxing.

Honestly, I feel very understanding of market concerns. Valuations are expensive and problems are starting to rise, such as the employment market and car loans. To me, though, it’s currently too hard to bet on problems arising right now.

Why would problems arise now? We’re still getting settled from the latest bout of trouble and stimulus in the form of a Fed cut is coming. We can, and will, have trouble. Maybe it comes right now, but personally I think we’re likely to do it at a level where there are fewer people still clinging to a bearish narrative.

When the CNN Fear & Greed index is out of the Fear range, when puts aren’t being so actively bought, then I’ll worry more about downside. For now, we should have more money entering the market, unless some surprising trouble arises, which of course, it could.

Hated bull markets tend to go up, though, and that’s how we’re positioned. I expect further gains, though I recognize that doesn’t have to happen. The thing is, late-stage bull runs can be very powerful, as bears end up chasing and driving prices higher. For now, I think that’s the most likely path.

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