Did Jerome Powell Break The Stock Market? LFG Daily - November 18, 2025

Dream Bigger, Sleep Better

At Lloyd Financial Group, we’re constantly striving to give you more insight, more clarity, and more confidence when it comes to your money. Our Chief Investment Officer, Colin Symons, now delivers his own daily newsletter, offering deep analysis and a detailed outlook on the ever-changing investment world called Symons Says. Check it out and subscribe if you want a very detailed, daily analysis of the investment world. Colin has amazing content.

Meanwhile, the LFG Daily will continue to bring you quick, actionable summaries — blending market updates with financial planning and tax strategies to help you make smarter decisions every day. Together, they’re the perfect one-two punch: Colin brings the deep dive into Investments, we bring the daily edge.

Luke Lloyd, CEO Lloyd Financial Group

Why Right Now Is the Greatest Time in Human History to Start a Business

If you were ever going to take a shot at building something of your own — a business, a brand, a mission — this is your moment. Not 1995. Not 2008. Not “once things calm down.” Right now.

Let me paint the picture.

We live in an era where someone can wake up in their apartment, throw on sweatpants, make coffee, fire up their laptop, and by lunchtime be running a company that reaches people in all 50 states. That wasn’t possible 20 years ago. It wasn’t even close.

And the best part? You’re not alone. America is in the middle of an entrepreneurship boom that would make the Gold Rush look like a lazy Sunday stroll.

A Quiet Revolution… That Isn’t So Quiet Anymore

Over the last few years, something wild happened. While the media obsessed over recessions, inflation, and whatever chaos D.C. is creating this week, millions of Americans quietly decided: Screw it, I’m starting something.

From 2021 through 2023, people filed over 5.2 million new “likely employer” business applications — a record-breaking surge, more than one-third higher than pre-pandemic levels. Last year alone, Americans were launching new ventures at a pace of 430,000 applications a month. That’s a 50% jump from 2019.

This isn’t a fad. This is a tidal wave.

What we’re seeing is the largest entrepreneurial reawakening in U.S. history — people choosing ownership over dependency, creativity over conformity, and opportunity over excuses.

The Playing Field Has Never Been This Level

For most of history, if you wanted to start a business, you needed capital, connections, or a last name that opened doors. Not anymore.

Today’s entrepreneur is scrappier, more diverse, more ambitious, and more resourceful than ever. In 2019, only 29% of new businesses were started by women. By 2023, that number jumped to nearly 50%. Minority-owned businesses are surging too. Technology didn’t just open doors — it blew the hinges off.

Why? Because the cost to start a business has collapsed.

What once required an office, staff, equipment, and huge upfront investment can now be launched with:

• A laptop

• A website

• A few digital tools

• And an idea that solves a real problem

You don’t need millions. You don’t need permission. You just need courage and consistency.

Technology Is the Great Equalizer

Think about it: for the first time, the average person has access to business tools that Fortune 500 companies would’ve killed for in the early 2000s.

AI can handle everything from market research to marketing.Cloud platforms can scale your business overnight.Automation eliminates the mundane so you can focus on the money-making work.Remote teams let you hire talent anywhere in the world.

In 1995, starting a business was like pushing a boulder uphill.In 2025, you’re rolling downhill with a jetpack.

Technology doesn’t just help you compete — it helps you win.

A Strong Tailwind from the Economy

Despite everything you see in the headlines, small businesses are absolutely carrying the American economy. Since 2019, they’ve created over 70% of all net new jobs.

When the big companies lay people off, entrepreneurs step up.

There are now 33.3 million small businesses in the U.S., employing more than 61 million Americans. That’s not a side plot in the economy — that is the economy.

And these businesses aren’t “mom and pop shops” fading into nostalgia. They’re lean, innovative, digital-first engines of growth.

If the U.S. economy were a body, small businesses aren’t just the heart — they’re the blood flow.

Yes, There’s Risk — But Never Less Than Today

Let’s be honest: entrepreneurship isn’t sunshine and stock options.

Some businesses fail. Some take longer than expected. Some test your sanity.

But here’s the twist: it has never been less financially risky to start something.

Why?

Because you can test ideas cheaply. You can pivot quickly. You can get paying customers before you even launch. You can stay lean instead of borrowing your way into stress.

The economy rewards agility now — and small businesses are the most agile players on the field.

The Real Reward: Freedom

At the end of the day, starting a business isn’t about chasing billions (though hey, if you want to try, go for it). It’s about freedom.

Freedom from relying on one employer.Freedom to build a schedule around your life.Freedom to create value that belongs to you.Freedom to turn your ideas into income and your passion into purpose.

Every great company you admire started the same way — with someone sitting on the edge of a decision, wondering if they should take the chance.

And if you’ve ever had that moment, that spark, that “what if…” running through your head…

This is your sign.

Final Thought: The Door Has Never Been More Open

We’re living in the single greatest period of democratized opportunity in human history. Technology is cheap. Barriers are low. Innovation is respected. Markets are hungry. And millions of Americans are proving every month that starting a business isn’t some far-off dream — it’s the new normal.

If you’ve ever wanted to build something of your own, you’re not too early. You’re not too late.

You’re right on time.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group

One common thread of my recent newsletters has been the idea that the market was going along fine until Powell said that a December Fed cut shouldn’t be considered a given. That marked the top of the market and December rate cut odds have gone from almost 100% to 43%.

Obviously, some people, such as the new Fed President and Trump advisor Miran think that’s a mistake, and the Fed should keep cutting. Personally, I don’t think my opinion matters here, there are already several opinion pieces out there, and there will be more as we approach the next FOMC meeting.

To me, what matters more is what the market thinks, and it seems the market views this as an error, given the struggles since the Powell’s statement and again with other Fed heads echoing Powell’s stance. Why does it look like such a mistake? As the chart below shows, breakeven inflation expectations have been moving down.

Thus, while the Fed worries about inflation, financial markets are saying they increasingly think inflation is not much of a concern. That’s a problem, as effectively, Powell and the Fed are tightening policy at the same time liquidity from the shutdown is just coming back.

Unfortunately, that’s a toxic mix. Is this politics at work? I hope not, but I admit a lot of what’s happened with the Fed has looked bad during Trump’s second term. Why did they so aggressively cut rates leading up to the election, then become so tight? Critics could say they were supporting one political party.

As to what happens from here, I guess we’ll see. The market currently expects a 43% chance of a cut. I’d like to think those odds improve, but we’ll see. I think a weakening job market needs far more attention than long-term sticky inflation, right now.

I also wanted to mention the latest most-important-ever earnings event coming up, Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday night. Again, this stock is very closely watched, and I don’t feel like I have any special insight, but the market is likely hedging this event, as AI-fear has been ramping.

On the one hand, I understand the fear, but I also don’t think we have any evidence of problems. AI chip rental rates are staying up, new projects are being announced, and so on. Expectations are for their earnings to grow handsomely, and I don’t see any reason to think that isn’t true.

There is, of course, concern that expectations are too high, but I’d say the last month or two of volatility has taken care of that. Whisper numbers of earnings are actually pretty close to the published estimates, so expectations don’t seem particularly out of line.

My expectation is that nothing bad enough is likely to happen in Nvidia earnings to cause market downside. It seems more likely to me that the hedging coming off will benefit markets. Further, as this week goes on, we should see more domestic liquidity as Treasury funds are disbursed. If that all turns out to be wrong, though, if by Thursday we’re not seeing an uptrend, it’s probably time to make some risk-management trims. We’ll see what happens.

Construction spending was strong, at 0.2% m/m vs. exp. -0.1%, with residential construction strong.

Fed Manufacturing was 18.7 vs. exp. 5.8.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow went from 4% to 4.1%.

The Fed’s Waller said a December rate cut makes sense because the labor market is still weak and near stall speed. That was the cause of the late bounce and took December rate cut odds up a bit, now at 47%.

The Trump administration is considering allowing the IRS to access and tax foreign crypto accounts held by Americans.

Trump says $2K stimulus checks will be sent out by the middle of 2026.

The Treasury General Account (TGA) still hasn’t really moved, at $959B vs. prev. $962B. Sometime soon, that should be coming down and going back into the economy.

Japan’s Finance Minister expressed alarm over FX news, supporting the yen for a bit, while their long-end bonds continued to weaken.

SPX and QQQ both closed below the 50DMA (Day Moving Average) for the first time since April, when we were recovering from the first round of Trump tariff tweets.

The VIX curve shows a lot of protection has been paid for the next three days. To me, that supports the idea that we should see a decent move up or down. That sets the stage for big moves.

ADP Weekly Jobs estimate, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods, today. We also have two more Fed heads talking, which has been the source of a lot of movement, lately.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

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