America Is Over-Innovating and Under-Producing, The Rise of The Blue-Collar Worker, LFG Daily - November 19, 2025

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Luke Lloyd, CEO Lloyd Financial Group

The Silent Bubble: Why America Is Over-Innovating and Under-Producing

Why the next economic crisis won’t be about tech… but everything tech can’t build.

America has a new bubble, and no—it’s not the one everyone keeps pointing at.

It’s not AI.It’s not software.It’s not even the stock market.

It’s the Silent Bubble: the widening gap between the things we invent and the things we actually build.

For twenty years, we’ve been accelerating innovation at warp speed while slowing production of physical goods to a crawl. Think of it as America having a Ferrari engine strapped to a 1970s pickup truck frame. The mind is racing ahead, but the real-world muscles that make things—houses, roads, power grids, factories—are exhausted, underbuilt, and way behind.

This imbalance is shaping everything: inflation, shortages, politics, and even market valuations. And very few people are putting all the dots together.

Let’s fix that.

The Market Loves What Doesn’t Weigh Anything

If you want a quick way to understand what investors value today, here it is:

• A company that produces code: 40x earnings.

• A company that produces copper: 8x earnings.

• A company that produces housing: legally strangled. Good luck.

  
  

Capital chases what scales—software, AI models, data—because you can multiply it infinitely with almost no friction. Zero raw materials. Zero shipping. Zero zoning meetings with a city planner named Linda who denies your project because “the font on page 73 isn’t ADA-compliant.”

So the smart money goes where real-world constraints don’t exist.

And that’s the problem.

Because the real world still exists.

Innovation Is Exploding — but Physical Capacity Isn’t

Here’s the real economic story of the 2020s:

We’ve unleashed an AI revolution, but our power grid can barely keep the lights on.We can design a billion-parameter model, but we can’t build enough houses for millennials.

We can simulate energy systems, but we can’t build pipelines, refineries, or transmission lines to support them.

Call it the physical bottleneck economy.

America isn’t short on ideas—if anything, we’re drowning in them. We’re short on the stuff ideas need to become reality.

And when the digital world runs way ahead of the physical world, you get:

• Structural inflation (not enough supply)

• Political frustration (people angry that progress doesn’t feel like progress)

• Geopolitical stress (China builds 10x faster)

• Market bifurcation (tech stocks moon, everything else stagnates)

Here’s the defining economic mismatch of our era:

We can design an AI model capable of beating world champions…but we can’t build enough homes for the people who live here.

We can simulate an entire power grid in the cloud…but we can’t build transmission lines in under a decade.

We can code digital twins of skyscrapers…but we can’t get permits to build the real ones.

This is the physical bottleneck economy.Ideas aren’t the issue. Execution is.

And you know who becomes the most valuable person in a world that desperately needs to build again?

Not the programmer.Not the strategist.Not the MBA.

It’s the blue-collar worker.

AI Can Replace Coders Faster Than It Can Replace Plumbers

Here’s the irony of the AI era:

The most “future-proof” jobs are the ones everyone told kids to avoid.

Try automating these:

• Electricians

• Welders

• Plumbers

• HVAC techs

• Skilled machinists

• Heavy equipment operators

• Linemen

• Construction specialists

• Diesel mechanics

• Fabricators

• Energy technicians

• Utility workers

  
  

AI can write code.

It can’t install a transformer, fix a pipe, run conduit, or rebuild a substation in 110-degree heat.

AI creates digital abundance. But America’s problem is physical scarcity.

And scarcity = pricing power.

The Blue-Collar Revolution: The New Six-Figure Class

Here’s what’s quietly happening right now:

Blue-collar jobs are becoming the new six-figure careers.

Not because they’re glamorous. Not because they suddenly became easier.

But because the physical economy is so starved for talent, skill, and production capacity that wages are exploding.

Welders: $90k–$150k Linemen: $120k–$200k Electricians: $80k–$140k Plumbers: $90k–$160k Diesel mechanics: $80k–$130k Tower climbers: $100k–$180k HVAC specialists: $90k–$150k

Meanwhile, entry-level coding jobs are being automated before the interview process even finishes.

For 20 years, society pushed kids into college degrees that led to laptops.Now the economy desperately needs people who can hold a wrench, a torch, or a voltmeter.

This is the largest labor-value rebalancing in decades.

Blue-collar isn’t “back.” It’s becoming elite.

Inflation Isn’t a Money Problem — It’s a Production Problem

The Fed gets blamed for everything, and sometimes they deserve it. But here’s the uncomfortable truth:

You can print money faster than ever… if you can also produce things faster than ever.

We can’t.

Housing construction is decades behind population needs. Energy infrastructure is decades behind demand. Permitting timelines stretch 3–10 years for basic projects. We literally cannot pour concrete as fast as we can code algorithms.

So what happens?

Prices rise.People blame each other.Politicians weaponize it.And investors pile even harder into the things that don’t require bulldozers.

This is the Silent Bubble: the over-valuation of the intangible world because the tangible world is suffocating.

Why This Matters for Investors

Here’s where it gets interesting.

If America ever wants to catch up, we’ll need a massive capital rotation into physical production:

• Energy

• Housing

• Infrastructure

• Manufacturing

• Industrial automation

• Materials

• Logistics

• Grids, roads, pipes, ports

In other words, the “boring stuff.”

The next big secular bull market may not be AI stories—it may be the companies enabling AI to exist in the real world.

AI needs power. Power needs generation. Generation needs materials. Materials need mining. Mining needs permitting. And permitting needs… well, divine intervention.

But once this bottleneck breaks—and it will—the physical economy could see its biggest boom since the post-WWII buildout.

Why This Matters for Financial Planning

Clients feel the effects long before they understand the cause.

• Why are homes unaffordable? Under-production.

• Why do energy bills swing wildly? Under-investment.

• Why are groceries expensive? Fragile supply chains.

• Why do taxes rise? Aging infrastructure requiring costly fixes.

  
  

Good planning today isn’t just about saving and investing. It’s about aligning people with the long-term trends shaping the next 20 years.

And right now, the biggest trend is simple:

Capital is mispriced. Tech is overvalued relative to the physical world.The future winners will be the ones who bridge the gap.

The Bottom Line

America doesn’t have a tech bubble — we have a production deficit.

We are over-innovating in the digital world and under-producing in the real one. That imbalance is driving inflation, shortages, political tension, and economic frustration.

But it’s also creating one of the most compelling investment and entrepreneurial opportunities in decades: the rebuilding of America’s physical economy.

Silicon Valley built the future in our heads. Now America has to build it in the real world.

And whoever funds, fixes, or builds the physical side of that equation?They’re about to enter the greatest opportunity of their lifetime.

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Colin Symons, CIO Lloyd Financial Group

Jobless claims for the week of 10/18 were 232K vs. exp. 223K, with Continuing Claims 1.957M, up from the prev. 1.947M. More slow motion deterioration.

ADP saw 2.5K jobs last week, an improvement from the week before.

The Fed’s Barkin says he agrees a December rate cut isn’t a foregone conclusion.

Trump says he thinks he’s found his next choice for Fed President.

Japan saw Core Machine Orders up 4.2% m/m vs. exp. 2%, helping send their 30Y yields up to an ATH.

The DXY dollar index is approaching 100 again, largely on yen weakness.

The TGA (Treasury General Account) moved down from $959B to $924B, as money starts to flow back out.

Yesterday was non-AI day, where Mag7 names generally underperformed after AMZN and MSFT were both downgraded. Stocks were volatile but ended off the lows.

More Fed speakers, plus VIXpiration and FOMC minutes. Also, NVDA reports tonight.

What does it all mean? Markets are bouncing nicely this morning ahead of VIX expiration and NVDA earnings. Could we have we seen the lows?

Don’t leave your financial future up to chance. Let’s build a plan that gives you confidence today and peace of mind for tomorrow. Click here to schedule a meeting — I’m here to help you take the next step toward financial freedom.

Book a Meeting with LFG

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